Fed Decision and US Economic Data Gear Up to Move Crypto

Crypto Markets Brace for a Busy Macroeconomic Week

The global cryptocurrency market is seeing a mild pullback as traders brace for a packed slate of U.S. economic events. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalization dropped 1.6%, settling around $2.75 trillion.

BitcoinBTC-0.32% has dipped slightly below the psychological $80,000 mark, trading near $79,921. Meanwhile, market participants are keeping a close eye on incoming economic releases and option expiry dates that could spark price fluctuations in the coming days. Remember, past performance of digital assets is not an indicator of future results. You can view market metrics on platforms like Bitkub Market.

1. October 28: The Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The main event of the week begins with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluding on October 28. Back at its September meeting, the central bank raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75%–4%, marking its first rate hike in over three years.

However, market expectations lean heavily toward a pause this time around. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 88% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.

Comments from Fed Officials

This high probability aligns with recent remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who stated that there is no immediate urgency to raise interest rates again. Investors will be listening closely to Chair Kevin Warsh's press briefing for hints on future monetary policy moves.

Interest rate decisions matter because borrowing costs influence liquidity across all markets, including digital assets. If the Fed signals unexpected hawkish moves, risk-on assets might experience short-term selling pressure, whereas dovish signals could support market sentiment.

2. October 29: PCE Inflation and Weekly Jobless Claims

On October 29, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. The PCE index is widely regarded as the Fed's preferred inflation metric.

Breaking Down the PCE Forecasts

Analysts expect the headline PCE inflation rate to rise to 3.6% year-over-year, up from 3.4% recorded in August. On a monthly basis, headline PCE is forecast to grow by 0.5%.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% on an annual basis. Higher inflation numbers can sometimes prompt central banks to hold rates higher for longer.

Initial Jobless Claims Data

Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Labor will publish weekly initial jobless claims. For the week ending October 17, claims fell to 194,000. Economists forecast a slight rise to 198,000 for the latest period, offering insight into the health of the labor market.

3. October 29: U.S. Third-Quarter 2026 GDP Growth

Also arriving on October 29 is the U.S. Q3 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. Economists forecast annual GDP growth between 3.0% and 3.2%, representing a significant step up from the 2.2% growth rate recorded in the second quarter.

A robust GDP reading signals economic resilience, which can boost overall investor confidence. However, if strong economic growth pushes inflation expectations higher, market sentiment could shift as rate cut expectations diminish.

4. October 30: Massive $12 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry

To wrap up the week, crypto derivatives exchanges are preparing for a massive options expiry on Friday, October 30. Between $11.1 billion and $12.2 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are scheduled to expire.

Bitcoin Support Levels to Watch

With Bitcoin hovering around $79,921, analysts highlight $78,000 as a key support level to monitor. Options expiries often cause short-term price volatility as traders rebalance their positions or exercise their contracts.

EthereumETH-0.60% Options Expiry and Max Pain

Ethereum is also facing a notable expiration event. Around 322,586 ETH contracts worth roughly $777 million will expire. Ethereum is currently trading below $2,300, while the calculated max pain price—the price at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless—stands at $2,500.

Staying Informed in a Volatile Environment

With interest rate announcements, major inflation stats, GDP growth figures, and multi-billion-dollar derivatives expiries all clustered into a few days, short-term price swings are common. Investors should remember that past returns do not guarantee future performance and economic forecasts are subject to market conditions.

Past performance of digital assets or market operators does not guarantee future results. Digital asset trading carries inherent risks due to market volatility.