Polymarket Whale Loses $147K Bet on Last-Second Field Goal

An Eight-Second Heartbreak in London

Imagine watching your $146,700 investment balloon to over $600,000 with just eight seconds left on the clock.

Now imagine watching all of that money vanish into thin air just moments later.

That is exactly what happened to one crypto prediction market trader on Sunday, October 11, 2026.

The dramatic scene unfolded at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London during an NFL match between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

How Prediction Markets Work on Polymarket

Before diving into the details of the game, let us take a quick look at how prediction markets like Polymarket operate.

On these decentralised platforms, outcomes are represented as binary contracts. You buy shares that settle at either $1 or $0.

If the outcome you bet on happens, each share you hold pays out exactly $1. If it does not happen, your shares become completely worthless.

As a game progresses, share prices fluctuate between 0 cents and 99 cents based on real-time market odds.

The $146,700 Bet Before Kickoff

About two hours before kickoff in London, an account trading under the handle Kch-Temp decided to back the Philadelphia Eagles.

At 11:26 UTC, the trader placed two orders in the exact same second on Polymarket's international exchange.

Here is a quick breakdown of that massive order:

• Shares purchased: 623,449 Eagles shares
• Price per share: 23 cents
• Total cost: $146,700 (which included roughly $3,300 in trading fees)
• Potential payout: $623,449 if the Eagles won

Going into the game, the Eagles held a 2-2 record and were listed as underdogs against the 3-1 Jaguars.

The moneyline market for this match on Polymarket was active, with about 4.5 million total shares traded across all participants. Eagles shares traded around 23.5 cents at kickoff.

From 23 Cents to 99 Cents: The Wild Rollercoaster

For most of the fourth quarter, the Eagles trailed 16-14.

With 12 seconds remaining, Eagles kicker Jake Elliott stepped up and made a 48-yard field goal.

That kick put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 with only eight seconds on the clock.

Instantly, the probability of an Eagles victory surged on Polymarket.

Eagles shares jumped from around 78 cents to 99 cents within a few seconds.

For about 100 seconds, those shares traded at 97 cents or higher.

At that moment, Kch-Temp's position was paper-valued at over $600,000.

With eight seconds left, the trader sat on a paper value of over $600,000—a potential gain of more than 300% on their initial stake.

However, the trader chose not to lock in profits by selling their position early on the exchange.

The Last-Second Kick That Turned $600K to Zero

What happened next was an incredible turnaround in sports betting history.

On the ensuing kickoff, Jake Elliott kicked the ball down to Jacksonville's 8-yard line.

Jaguars returner Ameer Abdullah caught the ball and sprinted 53 yards down the sideline, reaching the Philadelphia 39-yard line with just one second remaining.

As the Jaguars lined up for a field goal, Eagles shares on Polymarket tumbled to around 40 cents.

Jacksonville kicker Cam Little stepped up for a 57-yard field goal attempt as time expired.

The kick went through the uprights, giving the Jaguars a stunning 19-17 victory.

Within seconds, Eagles shares plummeted from 40 cents down to 1 cent and then straight to zero.

Polymarket trade data shows that Kch-Temp never placed a sell order, leaving the entire $146,700 position to settle at $0.

Who is Trader Kch-Temp?

Losing $147,000 on a single game is significant, but for this trader, it was part of a much larger portfolio.

In fact, Sunday was actually a profitable day for the Kch-Temp account overall.

The account placed six other NFL bets on Sunday's games, generating approximately $348,000 in net profit.

Here is a look at some of their other key trades from that same day:

• Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints: Earned $114,529 in profit after betting on the Vikings to win.
• Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons: Placed $51,200 on over 43.5 total points about 30 minutes after Cam Little's kick, yielding a profit of $47,741.

The trader's account history shows extensive activity across prediction markets.

The account was created in June 2026 and had traded in over 380 different markets as of Monday, October 12.

According to its Polymarket profile, the account's total net lifetime profit stands at around $2.9 million.

The $147,000 Eagles loss was not even the account's largest single-trade loss.

• Biggest Loss: $389,789 lost betting against England beating Mexico in the World Cup on July 5.
• Biggest Win: $367,614 gained betting on fewer than 2.5 goals in Belgium's World Cup match against Iran on June 21.

Past performance of digital assets or trading accounts does not guarantee future results. You can view current market prices on regulated exchanges like bitkub.com/th/market/BTC.

What Happened on Kalshi and Other Exchanges?

Polymarket was not the only venue where trading activity took place during those final seconds.

On rival US prediction exchange Kalshi, the price of Jaguars contracts fell to just 1 cent right after Jake Elliott made his field goal.

Over the next two minutes, nearly 6 million Jaguars contracts changed hands on Kalshi at bottom prices of 1 or 2 cents.

That represents about $87,000 in total trade volume from traders buying low-priced contracts right before Cam Little's winning kick.

Kalshi's public trading data does not specify which traders held those contracts when they settled at $1.

The Explosive Growth of Sports Prediction Markets

This event reflects broader growth trends across sports prediction markets.

Across major prediction exchanges, sports and combo contracts generated $68.2 billion in notional volume during the 30-day period ending September 29.

That represents a 72% increase compared to the previous 30-day period, driven by the return of football season.

While total industry volume grew, Polymarket's international exchange lost volume over that same period.

Meanwhile, Polymarket US has been processing multi-leg sports contracts (parlays) since August 5 through an API-only beta.

At the same time, competitor Kalshi has generated approximately $25 million in platform fees as user participation grows.