ARK Invest Projects Tesla Stock Could Reach $4,400 by 2031

The Big Picture Behind ARK's Bold Tesla Target

Tesla stock (TSLA) has faced a tough road recently, dropping 18.16% since January 1 to close at $368.06 on October 19. Despite this decline, investment firm ARK Invest sees a dramatically higher valuation on the horizon.

In its updated financial model, ARK projects Tesla stock could reach $4,400 per share by 2031. That target represents nearly 12 times its October 19 closing price.

Past performance of stocks or digital assets is not indicative of future results.

To reach this target, ARK assumes Tesla's annual car sales will grow from 1.6 million units in 2025 to 10.2 million units in 2031. However, traditional vehicle sales are only a small piece of ARK's long-term equation.

The Core Driver: Robotaxis and AI Robotics

The primary business carrying ARK's projection is Tesla's planned driverless ride-hailing network, known as robotaxis.

ARK estimates that robotaxis will account for roughly 80% of Tesla's enterprise value in 2031. In their base-case scenario, about 8.1 million active robotaxis could generate $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue.

Beyond ride-hailing, the model factors in Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot. ARK expects Optimus to generate $212 billion in revenue from selling about 1 million units to external buyers.

To support these advanced robotics, ARK introduced a dedicated line for artificial intelligence infrastructure. They project Tesla's cumulative AI spending will increase from $7 billion at the end of 2025 to $225 billion by 2031.

Taking all these streams together, ARK estimates Tesla's total annual revenue could reach $1.45 trillion in 2031.

ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024. The primary reason is that we believe Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) is likely to inflect as robotaxis continue to proliferate.

That assessment was shared by ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire in their report update.

How Past Predictions Compare to Real Progress

In its previous 2024 model, ARK set a price target of $2,600 by 2029 and predicted a 2025 launch for robotaxis.

Tesla did launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. It has since expanded to 7 cities across 3 states, logging over 1 million unsupervised driverless miles in about 7 months.

Even with those milestones, ARK notes that Tesla's robotaxi progress has been slower than expected. This extended timeline pushed back ARK's expectation for Optimus to reach human-level capability to around 2031.

Key Assumptions and Potential Risks

ARK's $4,400 target relies on specific technology adoption milestones. The firm explicitly notes that its model carries a positive bias, meaning actual outcomes could land substantially lower if key conditions fall short.

ARK identifies a delayed robotaxi rollout as the biggest risk to its price forecast, highlighting four primary factors that could cause delays:

• Regulatory obstacles: Though ARK notes this concern is easing as self-driving technology proves safer than human drivers.
• Leadership risk: A sudden departure of CEO Elon Musk.
• Natural disasters: Major environmental events disrupting operations.
• Global pandemics: Health crises impacting supply chains and travel.

Independent analysts hold varying views on the timeline. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. expects robotaxis to reach more cities in early to mid-2027, with Optimus adoption following later that year.

What Investors Should Watch Next

Tesla is scheduled to report its third-quarter financial results on October 21. Analysts tracked by Nasdaq expect earnings of $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 per share a year earlier.

Investors following ARK's long-term thesis can look for management updates on robotaxi city rollouts, Optimus production schedules, and planned AI infrastructure spending.