XRP ETF Buyers Down 13% as Inflows Continue: Key Levels

Why Are XRPXRP+1.90% Holders Staying Put Despite Recent Price Drops?

XRP has had a rocky couple of weeks. The token recently traded near $1.40, marking an 8% dip over the past week and sitting about 11% below its September 23 high.

Normally, when crypto prices slide, you see a quick panic to the exits. Investors rush to dump their tokens on exchanges, driving up sell pressure across the market.

But this time, something unusual is happening. XRP holders are simply refusing to sell. Even ETF investors who are currently sitting on paper losses are choosing to buy more rather than panic.

Exchange Outflows Show Strong Long-Term Holder Conviction

To understand what crypto investors are actually doing with their money, analysts look at on-chain metrics like exchange flows. Glassnode tracks a key metric called Exchange Net Position Change, which measures how many tokens enter or leave exchanges over a 30-day window.

Think of crypto exchanges like retail store shelves. When tokens leave exchanges (a negative reading), it means investors are moving them into private cold storage for long-term holding. When tokens enter exchanges (a positive reading), it usually means people are getting ready to sell.

Around September 25, when XRP was trading near $1.57, Glassnode recorded a 30-day exchange net position of roughly -1.53 billion XRP. By October 8, even as the price slipped down to around $1.38, that negative outflow metric actually held steady at -1.58 billion XRP.

If investors were eager to cut their losses and exit, exchange deposits would have jumped, pulling that metric back toward zero. Instead, coins kept moving off exchanges, showing that major holders are sitting tight and waiting out the storm.

Spot XRP ETF Buyers Are Underwater but Keep Adding Cash

Institutional investors buying spot XRP ETFs seem to share that same long-term patience. Data from SoSoValue shows that investors have poured a massive $1.80 billion into spot XRP ETFs since their official launch.

Inflows into these funds were particularly strong in August, setting a record for 2026. Fund managers used all that cash to purchase actual XRP tokens on the spot market.

However, because the market has pulled back recently, XRP is now trading below the average price these ETF managers paid for it. As of October 8, the total XRP held across these funds was worth $1.56 billion.

That means ETF investors as a group are down about 13% compared to the $1.80 billion in net cash put in. In financial terms, we call this being underwater.

Breaking Down the Numbers: Canary and Franklin Templeton Funds

Some specific funds show even larger gaps between investment cost and current market value. For instance, Canary's XRPC fund holds about $335.7 million in total assets against $486.8 million in net cash inflows, leaving its holdings roughly 31% underwater.

Usually, when mainstream retail or fund investors sit on double-digit losses during a market dip, you expect a wave of fund redemptions. But these ETF buyers are acting surprisingly calm.

In fact, spot XRP ETFs have logged only a single day of net cash outflows since September 18. That occurred on October 2, when investors pulled out a minor $3.28 million.

Every other day has seen fresh capital coming in. On October 8, as broader crypto market weakness pushed XRP down to a temporary low of $1.32, Franklin's XRPZ fund still captured $8.17 million in new cash.

It is worth noting that while overall inflows remain positive, the pace has slowed compared to late September. Over the last 30 days, spot ETFs added under 100 million XRP in total.

This tells us that the majority of the 1.58 billion XRP leaving exchanges over the past month came from independent whales and long-term crypto holders, rather than institutional ETF managers.

Key XRP Technical Levels That Will Test Market Patience

While holder conviction remains steady right now, technical charts show clear price boundaries where this patience will be tested.

XRP started a gradual downward trend after reaching a peak near $1.70 on August 22, which capped off an impressive 28% rally that month. A secondary rebound attempt in September stalled out at $1.65.

On October 8, price action got tense when XRP dropped briefly below $1.37—a crucial point known as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Fortunately for buyers, the price bounced back quickly and closed above $1.37 for the day.

Steady exchange outflows and persistent ETF buying likely provided the liquidity cushion needed for that fast price recovery.

Potential Upside and Downside Market Scenarios

Price movements depend heavily on market conditions and key technical levels. Here is how analysts view the potential paths forward:

• Bullish Scenario: If XRP can hold firmly above $1.37, it keeps the possibility alive for a recovery toward $1.43 and $1.48. To break out of its recent pattern of lower highs, XRP would need to clear resistance at $1.66 and push past $1.70.
• Bearish Scenario: If selling pressure increases and XRP suffers a daily close below $1.37, followed by a breakdown under $1.30, patient holders might finally start cutting their losses. A breach of $1.30 could open the door for a drop to $1.20, or even $0.92 if the broader crypto market faces a larger pullback.

What This Means for Everyday Crypto Investors

The clash between falling short-term prices and steady long-term accumulation is one of the most interesting dynamics in crypto today. Holders and ETF buyers have absorbed an 8% weekly drop without running for the door.

However, all digital assets carry high price volatility and inherent risks. Investors should carefully monitor how prices behave around the pivotal $1.37 mark before making trading decisions.

Past performance of digital assets is not a guarantee of future results. Always make sure to evaluate risks thoroughly and align your actions with your personal risk tolerance.