Why Bitcoin Held $80K as ETF and Saylor Buying Slowed

What Happened to Bitcoin's Biggest Buyers Last Week?

If you follow the crypto market, you probably know that two giant forces usually drive Bitcoin's price moves: institutional US spot Bitcoin ETFs and Michael Saylor's company, Strategy. Last week, both of these major powerhouses took a visible step back.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest weekly capital pullout in nearly four months. At the same time, Strategy posted its smallest Bitcoin purchase of the entire year. Yet, despite both heavyweights hitting the brakes, Bitcoin managed to stay comfortably above the $80,000 mark for a full week.

To understand why the market didn't collapse under this pressure, one crypto analyst did a deep dive into block data to find out who is taking over the buying side.

Checking Bitcoin's Current Market Position

Bitcoin started the week with strong momentum, hitting a peak of $84,352 on Monday before bumping into heavy selling resistance. That pushback sent prices sliding down to roughly $81,000 overnight before buyers pushed it back up over $83,000.

Overall, Bitcoin ended the week down about 4%. Last week's low hit $80,393 on October 8. While dips like this can feel alarming, putting the numbers in perspective gives a much clearer picture.

It is important to remember that crypto markets carry inherent volatility. Past performance of digital assets is not an indicator of future results.

Breaking Down the ETF Outflows and Strategy's Pause

1. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Lost $679 Million

Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled out a net $679 million last week. At current market prices, that equals roughly 8,000 BTCBTC-1.81% entering the selling pool. While $679 million sounds like a massive number, it is worth looking at the broader context.

Since these ETFs launched back in January 2024, they have brought in over $57 billion in net capital. That means last week's outflow represents only about 1.2% of the total cash brought into these funds. In fact, ETFs have posted outflow days roughly half of all trading days this year, making this movement fairly routine.

Why were ETF investors selling? A key driver was traditional bond yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31% last Monday, marking its highest closing level of the year. When traditional bonds offer high guaranteed yields, some large institutional investors move capital out of riskier assets like crypto into safer options.

To highlight how minor this pullout was, consider the streak from mid-May to early July earlier this year. During that period, ETFs saw eight straight weeks of red numbers totaling $8.3 billion in outflows—more than 12 times larger than last week's figure. Back then, Bitcoin dropped over 25%, falling from around $80,700 to under $59,000.

2. Strategy Buys Shares Instead of Bitcoin

The second major player, Strategy, also shifted its capital allocation strategy. Between October 5 and October 11, the company purchased just 250 BTC for $21.5 million. This was their smallest single Bitcoin allocation of 2026.

Instead of focusing heavily on crypto, Strategy directed $192.4 million toward buying back its own STRC preferred shares during the same week. That stock buyback was almost nine times larger than their direct Bitcoin purchase.

Despite slowing down its pace last week, Strategy remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, holding an impressive 848,250 BTC acquired at an average cost of $75,444 per coin.

Who Sold and Who Stepped Up to Buy?

Leveraged Traders Were Forced Out

Much of last week's downside pressure came from derivative markets rather than long-term holders. On crypto exchange Binance, Bitcoin futures open interest fell from roughly 97,400 BTC down to 92,400 BTC over the week—a drop of about 5%.

Funding rates dropped back down to near zero. In plain English, this means high-risk leveraged bets were flushed out of the system, leaving behind a healthier market structure.

There was also increased exchange activity. Around 25,000 BTC moved onto exchanges on October 6 alone, followed by another 5,300 BTC net between October 8 and October 11. When investors transfer coins to exchange wallets, it often indicates an intention to sell.

Spot Buyers and HODLers Kept Prices Stable

If big funds and corporate treasury buyers backed off while traders moved coins to exchanges, why didn't Bitcoin crash? The analyst pointed to two primary forces:

• Spot Market Buyers: On Binance, aggressive spot buyer order volume sat at just 49% on October 7 and 8. But starting October 9, as prices hit weekly lows, aggressive spot buying jumped to 55.6%, then 52.7%, and then 56.3%. Real spot investors stepped in immediately to buy actual Bitcoin, absorb the selling pressure, and support the price floor.
• Unwavering Long-Term Holders: Roughly 63% of all existing Bitcoin has not moved out of its wallet addresses in over a year. As the analyst noted: 'Those coins are not for sale at 83K, and they were not for sale at 80K either.' When ETFs release 8,000 BTC onto an order book where 63% of the total supply is locked away by long-term investors, the negative price impact remains limited.

Additionally, the market's 'true market mean'—which calculates the average acquisition cost for all active investors—sits right around $79,250. Last week's price drop stopped just above that key average before spot buyers absorbed the supply.

What Do the Technical Charts Say Next?

Looking ahead, the analyst outlines two realistic technical paths for Bitcoin's price action over the coming weeks, viewing both scenarios as roughly equally likely.

Path 1: The Bullish Scenario

If spot demand remains steady and Bitcoin holds firm above its support level at $80,393, the bounce from $80,944 could ignite a stronger leg upward. Under this setup, the initial near-term target range is $84,177 to $86,232. If momentum carries past that hurdle, daily technical charts point toward a broader zone between $88,597 and $97,637.

However, if selling pressure intensifies and Bitcoin falls below $80,393, this bullish setup becomes invalid.

Path 2: The Careful Rejection Scenario

In the alternative scenario, the current upward movement could be a temporary bounce that stalls out between $84,956 and $85,434, inside a resistance zone stretching up to $86,600. A sharp rejection in this zone would likely push Bitcoin into another downward correction.

A decisive break and close above $86,600 would be required to reduce downside risks and favor the bullish scenario.

Why the $75,000 Level Matters Most

If Bitcoin faces a deeper pull-back, the analyst identifies a major support safety zone spanning from $63,326 down to $74,840. This isn't a direct price forecast, but rather an underlying support buffer.

The top boundary of this safety zone sits right next to two critical breakeven points:

• Strategy's Average Cost: $75,444 per Bitcoin.
• Short-Term Holders' Average Cost: Approximately $74,400 per Bitcoin.

At around $75,000, both the largest corporate treasury holder and the average recent buyer would be right back at their entry prices. How market participants react at that breakeven point could determine Bitcoin's long-term trend.

Should a broader market dip bring prices down toward that $75,000 level, the analyst noted that it would represent an attractive entry zone to evaluate new spot purchases.