Does the McRib Pump Bitcoin? Here Is What Data Says

The Tasty Crypto Meme That Won't Die

If you spend any time on crypto social media, you might have seen a popular theory. Some traders believe that whenever McDonald's brings back the McRib sandwich, Bitcoin's price is bound to rally.

With the iconic pork sandwich returning to select U.S. stores, excitement among meme-loving traders has flared up once again.

The McRib is back on 10/27. BTCBTC-0.42% historically goes up >2x after the McRib returns. Don't fade the McRib. Not financial advice. — internbrah (@internbrah)

What the Hard Data Actually Reveals

While it makes for great internet humor, market researchers have taken this theory off the menu completely.

There is no correlation at all. Whilst it is a fun exercise, it seems to be that people omit McRib returns when it doesn't fit the narrative. — Luke Nolan, Senior Researcher at CoinShares

Nolan tracked ten separate dates when the McRib returned to U.S. menus against Bitcoin's weekly closing prices. Out of those ten events, only three showed positive Bitcoin returns. In reality, the sandwich's return has often preceded major market drops.

Past performance of digital assets is not an indicator of future results.

Pure Coincidence, Not Causation

Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at trading firm GSR, emphasized that there is no logical link between fast food products and blockchain markets. He noted that any price jumps following a McRib release are purely accidental coincidences.

Let's say, hypothetically, it did indicate the start of a bull run, it would be quite nonsensical, similar to when people overlaid the Dune movie releases. So yes, it's fun, generates some excitement, but even in the best case, purely coincidental. — Luke Nolan

Guzman added that the crypto community embraces the theory simply because it is absurd and funny.

What Is Really Moving Bitcoin's Price?

While memes circulate online, institutional investors are focused on macroeconomic events. Bitcoin has experienced modest movement recently, trading around $79,750 after dipping roughly 6% over the past month. Recent daily ranges sat between $79,416 and $80,680.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, noted that Bitcoin is currently in a 'wait and see mode' as market participants await updates from central bankers.

Three Key Catalysts Watching Market Traders

According to Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks, three major events over the next two weeks will likely dictate market direction far more than any fast-food menu:

• Federal Reserve Rate Decision: The Fed's upcoming announcement on Wednesday.
• Derivatives Expiry: A massive $11.69 billion Bitcoin options expiry set for October 30.
• Political Events: The upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) subsequently rising 0.6% for the month. Traders are closely monitoring the central bank's next step.

Potential Market Scenarios and Risks

Koch-Gallup outlined how different macroeconomic outcomes could impact Bitcoin's short-term price levels:

• Potential Upside Case: If the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged and spot ETF capital inflows remain steady, Bitcoin could break upward.
• Potential Downside Risk: If the Fed decides to hike interest rates further, Bitcoin could retest support levels between $75,000 and $77,000.

Investors should keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile. Macroeconomic conditions can change rapidly, and past trends do not guarantee future price performance.