Bloomberg Sees $10K Bitcoin While CryptoQuant Points to $30K Floor

Where is Bitcoin headed next? That is the big question on everyone's mind right now. Crypto analysts are locking horns over where Bitcoin's true price bottom actually lies.

On one side, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone warns that Bitcoin could slide all the way down to $10,000. On the other side, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues that on-chain data points to a solid floor near $30,000.

Mike McGlone's Bearish $10,000 Prediction

Mike McGlone shared his outlook in a social media post, previewing a report titled 'A Bitcoin $10,000 Reversion Path Could Trigger Tumbling Dominoes.'

I see Bitcoin on track toward support around $10,000, notably if the US stock market has a 20% drawdown.

McGlone believes several macroeconomic factors signal a potential market endgame. He highlights Bitcoin's peak above $100,000 in 2025 and gold rising above $5,000 in the first quarter of the year. At the same time, central banks are shifting toward restraint while government bond yields climb.

He pointed out that the five-year U.S. Treasury yield sitting near 5% creates tough competition for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold. Additionally, Bitcoin's 50-week moving average is trending downward, mirroring the market behavior seen during 2022 and 2023.

This call is not entirely new for McGlone. Back in April, he warned of an impending market 'hurricane' and suggested Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 unless it held above $75,000. When on-chain analyst Willy Woo pushed back against his call, McGlone simply advised checking back in a year.

Ki Young Ju's $30,000 On-Chain Floor Math

Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, strongly disagrees with McGlone's $10,000 target. He responded directly with institutional numbers.

Ju pointed out that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have brought in $58 billion in net inflows. Furthermore, corporate treasury companies now hold 1.3 million BTCBTC-0.42%. According to Ju, even if capital inflows slow down, the average cost basis on the blockchain establishes a hard floor near $30,000.

Ju also pointed to a metric called MVRV, which stands for Market Value to Realized Value. MVRV compares Bitcoin's current market price against the average price at which every coin last moved on-chain. A value under 1 means the average holder is holding unrealized losses.

By Ju's calculations, a $10,000 Bitcoin price would crash the MVRV ratio down to 0.2. For comparison, the worst market bottom in Bitcoin's entire history printed an MVRV of 0.6.

Ju added that reaching $10,000 would require investors from 2019 to panic sell. However, those long-term holders have already stayed strong through two separate 75% market crashes. Ju also noted that McGlone's chart divides Bitcoin's price by 10, meaning the '10,000' mark on the axis actually represents $100,000.

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer Points to Power Law Support

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, offers a third perspective based on power law patterns.

Timmer noted that a new four-year bull market cycle could be unfolding. He stated that while there might not be an obvious driving narrative right now, major bull markets rarely start with one.

His data chart placed Bitcoin's power law support line at $56,488, with the previous cycle peak marked at $122,765 on a weekly basis. With Bitcoin trading around $82,976 at the time of the data cut, the asset sat roughly 47% above its fundamental power law support level.

Current Market Conditions and Key Signals

McGlone's $10,000 scenario depends heavily on a 20% stock market correction. For context, the Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.5% on Friday and sits 6.5% below its October 6 peak, which is still quite far from a 20% drawdown.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin slipped below $81,000 on October 16 due to short-term market volatility before hovering near the $81,500 mark. Analytics firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin's $80,000 safety cushion is eroding, while MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor remains confident that the market bottom is already in.

Prediction markets currently assign only a 27% probability of Bitcoin returning to the $100,000 price range in the immediate near term.

It is important to remember that price targets published by analysts depend on specific economic conditions, such as stock market pullbacks or sustained institutional buying. If broader market conditions shift, price action may vary significantly. Past performance of digital assets or historical cycles does not guarantee future results.