Bitcoin Hits Weekly High as Crypto Market Rebounds

Crypto Market Mounts a Recovery

BitcoinBTC-3.77% traders are getting a bit of breathing room this week. After a spooky start to October, Bitcoin bounced back to trade near $84,500 on Wednesday, marking a 2.5% gain over 24 hours. This recovery follows a mid-October dip that briefly pushed the asset below $80,000.

The broader market followed suit nicely. The total market capitalization for all cryptocurrencies grew between 2.2% and 2.6%, lifting the combined value of the crypto market back up to around $2.82 trillion to $2.9 trillion.

Altcoins also joined the green wave. EthereumETH-5.02% climbed 2.5% to $2,504, while SolanaSOL-4.73% gained 2.2% to trade at $108.18. Binance Coin (BNBBNB-2.70%) posted a 2% rise to $749. Among major assets, XRPXRP-5.95% led the pack with a 4.1% increase to $1.37. Zcash saw a strong surge, jumping 11.2% in a day to reach $1,332 and bringing its seven-day gains to 15.3%.

Past performance of digital assets is not an indication of future results. You can view current market data on platforms like bitkub.com/en/market/BTC.

Market Sentiment and Macro Economic Drivers

How are traders feeling right now? The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 55 out of 100. This score indicates a neutral market mood. It is up 3 points from yesterday, showing that panic has cooled off, though aggressive buying has not fully taken over yet.

Global economic factors continue to influence digital asset prices. Brent crude oil traded between $97 and $112 per barrel this month, staying near $108 on Wednesday. Geopolitical tension involving Iran keeps energy supply fears alive, especially after Washington rejected an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in late September.

High oil prices matter to crypto because they drive up broader inflation. U.S. consumer prices grew 3.7% year-over-year in September, topping the 3.6% forecast and rising from 3.4% in August.

When inflation rises, U.S. Treasury yields go up as well. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.09% recently. When government bonds offer returns above 5% with minimal default risk, investors often move capital away from riskier assets like crypto and stocks. Higher yields also make borrowing costlier for leveraged trades.

Monetary policy remains tight. The Federal Reserve benchmark rate sits at 3.75% to 4% following a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders price in roughly an 80% chance of a rate pause at the October 28 meeting, while expecting a rate hike on December 9.

Breaking Down Bitcoin Technical Indicators

On the daily chart, Bitcoin opened Wednesday at $82,928.80 and reached a high of $84,726.28, representing a 1.94% candle gain. This comes after bouncing roughly 6% from its monthly low near $79,711. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin recorded a low of $82,327, a high of $84,808, and daily trading volume reached $1.2 billion.

Earlier, Bitcoin staged a rally from $62,763 up to a September peak of $87,422.70. That move established strong support at $81,603. Although Bitcoin lost that level during the mid-October pullback, buyers have now reclaimed it.

Moving averages present a positive structural signal. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits near $80,782, holding above the 200-day EMA at roughly $76,084. Having a 50-day average above a 200-day average typically signals an ongoing uptrend. Currently, Bitcoin trades about 4.6% above its 50-day EMA.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.5. A score above 50 shows buyers hold the edge, while a reading over 70 indicates an overbought condition. This suggests buying momentum is growing without being overextended.

Prediction Markets and Scenario Analysis

Prediction markets offer a view into trader expectations. On Myriad, a prediction platform built by Decrypt parent company Dastan, traders see a 59% chance of Bitcoin staying between $84,000 and $86,000 today. For the full week, there is a 63% probability of remaining above $84,000.

Looking further into October, Myriad traders place a 31% probability on Bitcoin touching $87,500 (down from 45% on October 12) and an 18% chance of touching $90,000.

If buying pressure picks up and macroeconomic risks diminish, a daily close above $84,726 alongside an Average Directional Index (ADX) rising above 25 could push Bitcoin toward resistance targets at $86,090 and $87,422.70. On the other hand, if elevated inflation or rising interest rates weigh on sentiment, price could fail to maintain $81,603, exposing downside levels at the 50-day EMA ($80,782), October lows ($79,711), and the 200-day EMA ($76,084).

If momentum stays weak with an ADX under 20, Bitcoin may continue trading sideways within its $79,700 to $87,400 range. Crypto markets remain highly volatile, and price movements can shift rapidly based on broader market conditions.