Bitcoin Faces Unusual October Slump as Market Demand Cools

A Surprising Shift in October's Usual Trend

For years, cryptocurrency traders have fondly nicknamed October "Uptober" because Bitcoin has historically delivered strong returns during this autumnal month. However, recent market activity is challenging that reputation.

As of October 28, Bitcoin (BTCBTC+2.02%) was down 3.3% for the month. Data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin was trading near $81,350, declining from its September closing price of $83,570.

This performance marks a notable change from historical trends. Between 2020 and 2024, Bitcoin closed every single October in positive territory, logging an average gain of roughly 18% per year during that period. That winning streak ended in October 2025 when the asset recorded a 3.8% loss, and this year appears on track to extend that losing record.

Past performance of digital assets is not an indicator of future results. You can inspect historical market performance on the Bitkub BTC Market page.

Weakening Spot Demand and What It Means

As Bitcoin's price softened throughout the month, demand in the spot market also showed signs of slowing down.

CryptoQuant tracks a key metric called the 30-day apparent demand, which dropped to -76,000 BTC on October 25. In fact, this demand indicator remained in negative territory every single day after October 14. When this metric turns negative, it indicates that buyers are taking in less Bitcoin than the amount newly created and circulating in the market.

Analyzing the Coinbase Premium in the United States

Buying activity among U.S. investors also reflected reduced enthusiasm during October.

To measure U.S. market interest, analysts look at the Coinbase Premium Index, which compares the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase (popular among U.S. retail and institutional investors) to Binance (the world's largest global exchange).

• Negative Throughout October: The Coinbase Premium remained in negative territory all month long.
• Lowest Level Since June: On October 24, the index dropped to -0.146, reaching its lowest point since late June.
• Widening Gap: October's average reading was -0.093, roughly three times lower than the levels recorded in September.

This negative gap points to lower buying pressure on Coinbase compared to Binance, though analysts note that this metric alone does not fully explain the broader slowdown in demand.

Trader Profits and Overall Market Health

Short-Term Trader Profit Margins Shrink

The pull-back in price has squeezed short-term market participants. Un-realized paper profits for short-term traders fell dramatically from around 33% in September to just 8% toward the end of October.

The Bull Score Index Cools Off

CryptoQuant uses a multi-factor tool called the Bull Score Index to gauge overall market momentum. This index slipped from a strong reading of 90 in late September and early October down to 60 starting October 19.

Despite the drop, the outlook is not entirely pessimistic. Six out of the ten metrics that make up the Bull Score Index remain positive. CryptoQuant currently describes the broader market condition as "bullish, cooling." However, if the index were to fall to 50 or lower, it would signal a more significant loss of market momentum.

Key Price Support Levels to Keep an Eye On

As price pressures persist, technical analysts are monitoring three specific price levels that could act as potential support floors:

1. 365-Day Moving Average: Located around $77,585.
2. Short-Term Trader Average Cost Basis: Sitting near $74,041.
3. 200-Day Moving Average: Positioned at $73,028.

All three of these support technicals are within about 10% of Bitcoin's October 25 trading price. Should market conditions remain stable, these levels may serve as points where buyers re-enter. However, if selling pressure intensifies and Bitcoin sustains a break below these technical lines, recent buyers could find themselves sitting on unrealized losses—though crypto asset prices remain volatile and subject to sudden trend reversals.