Bitcoin Analysts More Bullish Now Than in Early 2023 Cycle

Understanding the Latest Shift in Crypto Sentiment

Crypto market analysts are turning bullish at a pace not seen since the start of the previous major cycle. According to a recent report by analytics firm CryptoQuant shared with CryptoPotato, professional sentiment across major digital assets has shifted dramatically.

This positive turn covers five top assets: Bitcoin (BTCBTC+0.34%), EthereumETH+0.11%, BNBBNB+0.38%, XRPXRP+0.53%, and SolanaSOL+0.73%. Researchers at CryptoQuant observed that the current shift is deeper, faster, and broader than the recovery experienced between late 2022 and early 2023.

How Bitcoin's Analyst Consensus Index Turned Positive

To measure market expectations, CryptoQuant tracks the 30-day Analyst Consensus Index. This tool monitors expert calls to evaluate whether overall opinion leans toward price increases or declines.

In early July, market confidence was low following a price decline. However, conditions reversed rapidly over the summer weeks as tracked by key milestones:

• July 2, 2024: The Consensus Index hit a low of -18.3 when Bitcoin traded below $58,000.
• July 27, 2024: The index crossed into positive territory above 0 while Bitcoin reached roughly $63,800.
• Late August 2024: Bitcoin advanced toward the $80,000 level following the sentiment recovery.
• Current Status: The Consensus Index stands at +49.2 points.

Alongside index growth, the percentage of bullish analysts going viral expanded from under 40% to nearly 85%. This represents 137 out of 164 tracked market analysts expressing positive outlooks.

A Closer Look at Analyst Voting Behaviors

The change in index values is driven by analysts changing their outlooks rather than just new participants entering the survey pool.

CryptoQuant tracked 85 individual analysts who maintained active calls on Bitcoin from early July through the report period. Among this specific group, 47 analysts changed their stance from bearish to bullish. In contrast, only five analysts moved in the opposite direction.

Comparing Current Sentiment to the 2022-2023 Bull Cycle

CryptoQuant's report highlighted notable differences when comparing today's data with the start of the previous bull cycle.

CryptoQuant noted that analyst sentiment has moved deeper, faster, and broader than the turn witnessed between late 2022 and early 2023.

During the 2022–2023 recovery, Bitcoin's consensus index gained 36 points over a period of 103 days. During those same 103 days, Bitcoin's spot price rose by approximately 65%.

In the current period, the consensus index surged by 67 points over 103 days. However, Bitcoin's price grew by a more modest 33 points (or percentage gain equivalent) from its July low. This indicates that professional analysts have adjusted their forecasts faster relative to underlying price movement than in early 2023.

Whale Behavior and the Bull Score Index

This change in market sentiment aligns with shifts in large wallet activities. CryptoQuant data shows that large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as whales, resumed asset accumulation after several months of selling activity.

Simultaneously, CryptoQuant's broader Bull Score Index recorded a sharp rise. The score increased from a reading of 20 in July to 90 in September, reflecting stronger underlying network metrics and market activity.

Altcoins Lead Sentiment Shift: Ethereum, Solana, and XRP

Unlike the 2022–2023 recovery where altcoin sentiment lagged behind Bitcoin, major alternative cryptocurrencies are currently showing higher sentiment readings.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum's consensus index rose from +0.1 to +58.3. Currently, 88% of surveyed analysts hold a bullish outlook on ETH.

Solana (SOL)

Solana recorded the highest consensus index among all five evaluated assets, reaching +72. Out of 34 analysts evaluating SOL, 31 (or 91%) expressed bullish expectations.

XRP

XRP experienced a distinct rebound. On August 20, its consensus index dropped to -8.0 as the asset traded near a multi-year low of $0.99. Following a price recovery above $1.50, the sentiment index rebounded to 36.7% within a few weeks.

Understanding Market Sentiment and Risks

While sentiment indexes offer insight into market participant expectations, high consensus values do not guarantee future price growth. Market conditions remain subject to macroeconomic changes, regulatory updates, and sudden liquidity shifts.

If favorable economic factors continue and market inflows remain steady, bullish expectations may hold. However, if market liquidity declines or macroeconomic pressures increase, asset prices could experience downward adjustments regardless of current analyst expectations.

Past returns of digital assets or past performance are not indicative of future returns or performance. Market participants should evaluate both opportunities and risks carefully before making financial decisions.