Analysts Pick Hyperliquid Above Solana and Bitcoin Amid Drop

What Is Going On With Hyperliquid?

It can be confusing when an altcoin is heavily favored by industry experts, yet its price keeps slipping. That is exactly what is happening with Hyperliquid (HYPE) right now. Over the past month, HYPE lost about 15% of its value.

That monthly drop is significantly steeper than what major crypto assets experienced over the same period, including Bitcoin, EthereumETH+0.16%, and SolanaSOL+0.69%. Yet, according to data from analytics firm CryptoQuant, professional analysts are currently more bullish on HYPE than almost any other top cryptocurrency on the market.

How can a token fall so fast while top market analysts stay so excited about its potential? In this article, we will break down the numbers, unpack the key reasons behind the recent price slump, and look at what experts think could happen next.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Performance: The Numbers Breakdown

To understand where HYPE stands today, let us look at the hard figures. On Sunday, HYPE was trading at $76.55. That places the token roughly 22% below its record high of $97.96, which it reached on September 23.

Even with this recent pullback, Hyperliquid remains a massive project in the digital asset space, boasting a total market valuation of approximately $17 billion.

When we compare HYPE's 30-day performance to other major cryptocurrencies, the divergence is clear:

• Bitcoin (BTCBTC+0.51%): Remained essentially flat over the past 30 days.
• Ethereum (ETH): Lost around 9% over the same period.
• Solana (SOL): Dropped approximately 9% over the past 30 days.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): Slumped 15% over the last 30 days.

It is always important to remember that past performance of digital assets is not a guarantee of future returns. Digital asset markets are volatile, and past price movements should never be taken as a signal for future results.

Why Is HYPE Falling Harder Than Bitcoin and Solana?

When a single cryptocurrency drops faster than the broader market, specific token-level factors are usually at work. For Hyperliquid, three distinct forces combined to create short-term selling pressure.

1. The $340 Million Token Payout

The primary catalyst behind HYPE's recent slump occurred on October 6. According to data from unlock tracker Tokenomist, Hyperliquid's core team received a scheduled payout of 3.75 million HYPE tokens. At the time of the transfer, those tokens were valued at roughly $340 million.

A co-founder of Hyperliquid stated that this large batch of tokens would be sold off-exchange (over-the-counter) to a single institutional buyer. However, neither the name of the institutional buyer nor the negotiated purchase price was disclosed to the public.

In crypto markets, large token payouts and undisclosed institutional deals often create nervousness among individual traders. Even when sales take place off-exchange, market participants worry about potential secondary selling pressure, which can lead to cautious sell-offs in the open market.

2. The Buyback Imbalance

Hyperliquid operates as a decentralized venue for trading crypto perpetual futures. It features an interesting revenue design: according to research from CoinShares, the platform routes approximately 99% of its trading fees directly into buying back HYPE tokens from the open market every day.

These daily buybacks provide a constant stream of market demand. However, data from DefiLlama shows that Hyperliquid generated approximately $71 million for buybacks over the past 30 days.

When you compare that $71 million in buyback demand against the $340 million token payout unlocked for the team, the difference is significant. The payout was worth nearly five times the total amount spent on token buybacks over an entire month, creating a temporary supply-demand imbalance.

3. Derivative Liquidations and Leverage Wipes

Leveraged trading also exacerbated the price drop. Earlier this month, sudden price volatility triggered massive forced liquidations among traders who were using borrowed money to bet on higher prices.

According to market coverage on Hyperliquid whale activity, traders lost $688.56 million to forced closures in a single day this month. When leveraged long positions are liquidated, exchange risk systems automatically sell tokens to settle debt, adding heavy sell pressure to the market.

The Analyst Verdict: Why Are Experts Still So Bullish?

Despite a 15% price drop and short-term selling pressure, professional crypto analysts remain remarkably bullish on Hyperliquid's long-term outlook.

CryptoQuant's Analyst Sentiment Ranking

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant tracks analyst sentiment by measuring how strongly analysts lean bullish relative to each coin's own historical baseline standard deviations.

In their latest rankings, HYPE took the top spot, scoring 2.3 standard deviations above its normal baseline sentiment score. HYPE led a list of major assets in analyst enthusiasm:

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): Ranked #1 (+2.3 standard deviations above normal)
• BNB
• Solana (SOL)
• Bitcoin (BTC)
• CardanoADA+0.07%

The most bullish crypto asset by analyst sentiment is $HYPEHYPE+1.08%.

This insight was shared by Ki Young Ju, founder and chief executive officer of CryptoQuant, highlighting how strongly analysts favor HYPE despite the price decline.

Price Target Scenarios ($100 to $120)

The top analyst chart targets displayed on CryptoQuant range from $100 to $120. However, whether HYPE reaches these levels depends on key market conditions and risk factors:

• Bullish Scenario: If trading volumes on Hyperliquid stay elevated and daily platform fee buybacks successfully absorb incoming sell orders, analysts suggest HYPE could rebound toward $100 to $120 over the medium term.
• Bearish Scenario: If broader crypto market sentiment weakens, exchange trading fees fall, or additional large holders decide to liquidate, HYPE could fail to hold key support levels and experience further price corrections.
• Sideways Scenario: If daily buyback demand matches incoming market sell volume, HYPE may consolidate around current trading ranges while awaiting clearer market direction.

Raw Share of Bullish Analysts

While HYPE ranks highest in relative baseline sentiment, looking at the raw percentage of bullish analysts shows slightly different numbers across major projects:

• Cardano (ADA): 100% of tracked analysts are bullish.
• Uniswap (UNI): 92% of tracked analysts are bullish.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE): 90% of tracked analysts are bullish.

Even though ADA and UNI have slightly higher raw percentages, HYPE shows the most dramatic positive jump in analyst conviction compared to its own historical baseline.

History vs. Today: A Changing Sentiment Trend

Looking back at Hyperliquid's price history reveals an intriguing shift in how analysts react to its price drops.

During HYPE's last major correction—when its price dropped from around $75 in early June to near $52 in August—analyst sentiment on CryptoQuant's chart turned negative alongside the price drop.

This time, the pattern is different. Even as HYPE fell 15% over the past 30 days, analyst sentiment has remained firmly bullish throughout the entire drop. This indicates that analysts view the current dip as a temporary market adjustment rather than a loss of fundamental strength.

Key Levels and Factors to Watch Moving Forward

For traders and investors keeping an eye on HYPE, two specific elements will be vital in the coming weeks.

First, watch the platform's daily buyback capacity. Since Hyperliquid allocates 99% of trading fees to purchase HYPE on open markets, strong trading activity will be essential to absorb ongoing sell pressure from token unlocks.

Second, watch key technical support levels. Technical analysis highlights $75.14 as a critical support level. Trading around $76.55 on Sunday, HYPE was sitting less than $1.50 above this technical floor.

If HYPE holds above $75.14, it could build a base for price stabilization. If it breaks below, the token may enter a lower price exploration phase.

Important Considerations for Crypto Investors

The story of Hyperliquid shows how token economics, trading volumes, and supply unlocks interact in complex ways. While high fee revenues and steady buybacks offer structural support, sudden unlocks and leverage liquidations can create short-term price drops.

As always in the crypto market, digital assets involve significant price volatility and market risks. Always conduct your own research, consider both upside possibilities and downside risks, and manage your risk carefully.

Past performance of digital assets or historical platform results are not an indicator of future returns or future performance.