Bitcoin Pauses as Stock Funds Surge and Fed Hike Odds Jump

Bitcoin Stands Aside as Global Stocks Experience a Massive Money Surge

Have you noticed how traditional stock markets have been absorbing huge amounts of capital lately? While stock funds set brand-new inflow records, Bitcoin (BTCBTC-0.16%) has largely sat on the sidelines during the recent rally.

Investors are currently pouring money into stock markets. At the same time, traders are keeping a close watch on the Federal Reserve, where expectations for an interest rate hike in December have jumped sharply.

Unprecedented Cash Inflows into US Equity Funds

According to data shared by market commentary outlet The Kobeissi Letter on November 10, 2026, capital has been moving into equity funds at a historic pace. Global equity funds pulled in a record $266 billion over a four-week window.

The vast majority of these funds are flowing directly into the United States market:

• $2.1 trillion total: US equity funds have attracted over $2.1 trillion in total net inflows since 2020.
• $1.5 trillion since 2024: An impressive $1.5 trillion of that total arrived just since the beginning of 2024.
• 4.5x regional comparison: Total US fund inflows were 4.5 times greater than those moving into Emerging Market Asia equity funds.

Investor demand for US stocks is unprecedented: Since 2020, US equity funds have attracted +$2.1 trillion in inflows... This is 4.5 times the inflows into Emerging Market Asia equity funds...

Looking at global capital distribution puts these figures in context. Emerging Market Asia equity funds captured $470 billion, while European equity funds saw massive capital outflows losing $426 billion. Even though Asian stock markets rebounded on Monday, they mainly followed Wall Street's upward push rather than steering market direction.

In a single week, global stock funds added $89 billion, with US-focused funds contributing $32 billion of that weekly total.

What 84% Fed Hike Odds Mean for Bitcoin

Why does this massive stock inflow affect cryptocurrency? The primary reason centers around central bank interest rate policy.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool, which calculates rate probabilities using Fed benchmark futures, shows an 84.4% chance of a quarter-point (0.25%) interest rate hike at the Fed's December 9 meeting. The tool currently assigns a 0% probability to a rate cut.

This sharp rise in hike expectations follows the Fed's previous policy meeting on October 28, where officials voted 10 to 2 to hold rates steady between 3.75% and 4%. During that meeting, Federal Reserve Officials Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, preferring an immediate quarter-point rate increase.

How Rising Interest Rates Impact Crypto Assets

When interest rates increase, government bonds and Treasury yields become more attractive to traditional investors. Because Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset—meaning it does not pay regular interest or dividend payments—higher Treasury yields create a secondary headwind for BTC as capital shifts toward guaranteed yields.

Past performance of digital assets or fund inflows does not guarantee future market returns. Readers can track real-time market data on the Bitkub Market page.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows and the Market Road Ahead

While traditional stock indexes like the Nasdaq rebounded on Friday, Bitcoin lagged behind the move. Institutional demand also cooled down slightly, as US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced $1.28 billion in net outflows between November 2 and November 6.

Several macroeconomic signals will determine how liquidity flows in the coming weeks:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report: Inflation data coming out later Tuesday will test whether current 84% rate hike expectations hold true.
• US Treasury Bond Sales: A upcoming $42 billion 10-year Treasury note auction follows earlier Treasury sales that met relatively soft investor demand.

Two Potential Scenarios for Market Direction

The market outlook depends heavily on how economic metrics unfold:

Scenario 1 (Softer Inflation Data): If the upcoming CPI report shows lower inflation, market expectations for a December rate hike could decrease. Lower rate expectations might ease pressure on risk assets, giving Bitcoin room to recover momentum.

Scenario 2 (Higher Inflation & Tightening Fed): If CPI inflation remains sticky and the Fed moves ahead with a rate hike, traditional yield-bearing assets may continue attracting capital while crypto remains exposed to short-term volatility.