Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Analyst Challenges Cycle Patterns

Has Bitcoin Already Hit Its Bottom for This Cycle?

Bitcoin (BTCBTC-2.04%) experienced renewed selling pressure recently, pushing price levels down toward the $75,000 mark. Despite this volatility, some market observers believe the worst of the decline might already be behind us.

According to crypto trader KillaXBT, Bitcoin may have already established its bear market bottom. While historical trends often point to the fourth quarter as the typical period for cycle lows, KillaXBT argues that technical market structure currently carries far more weight than seasonal timing.

Market Structure vs. Historical Q4 Trends

In a recent post on X, KillaXBT pushed back against the widespread idea that Bitcoin needs to drop further to set a new final low before reversing course.

I want to show why I believe that may not be the case. The BTC bottom is already in, and what we’re likely seeing now is the market derisking as legacy markets fall off a cliff, with crypto simply following the correlation.

KillaXBT explained that across historical cycles, the leading cryptocurrency has consistently formed three significant lows. In their analysis, the low recorded in 2023 closely mirrors the price action observed this year, where two subsequent lows formed in close proximity to one another.

From a structural perspective, the analyst believes the traditional corrective pattern has completed. While the timing does not strictly align with seasonal expectations, KillaXBT emphasized that structural chart patterns are currently more reliable than seasonal calendar trends.

Testing the Bottom Call Amid Market Sell-Offs

Recent market price movements have put this bottom prediction to a serious test. Skeptics point to sharp drops across multiple timeframes as evidence of ongoing market weakness.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading just above $76,000. Just a day prior, BTC briefly climbed toward $81,000 following a recovery from a 7-week low of $75,600. However, as U.S. equities pulled back, BTC closed below the $76,000 level.

This sudden downturn triggered rapid market liquidations across the board:

• Over $560 million in trading positions were liquidated in under an hour.
• The vast majority of these liquidations were borne by traders holding long positions.
• Bitcoin experienced a 24-hour decline of over 5% and a weekly dip of more than 3%.
• Over a 30-day window, the asset has plunged 10%.
• BTC remains roughly 28% lower than its price 12 months ago.
• The price sits approximately 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October last year.

Past performance of digital assets is not an indication of future results.

Macro Factors Driving the Sell-Off

Market analyst Ash Crypto pointed out that the recent broader sell-off was largely driven by external macroeconomic and geopolitical factors rather than crypto-native issues.

Specifically, Ash Crypto cited market anxiety surrounding proposed restrictions on advanced artificial intelligence (AI) development alongside renewed concerns over potential escalation in the Iran conflict.

For Bitcoin's short-term market trajectory, Ash Crypto identified key technical levels to watch:

• 50-week moving average (~$75,500): A crucial support level that BTC needs to hold to prevent further downside.
• $80,000 mark: A key resistance level that BTC must reclaim to regain positive market momentum.

Evaluating Potential Scenarios and Market Risks

When evaluating cycle forecasts, market participants should consider multiple potential outcomes based on changing macro conditions and technical support levels:

Bullish Scenario

If macroeconomic pressures ease and Bitcoin maintains support above the $75,500 50-week moving average, a reclaim of $80,000 could confirm KillaXBT's view that structural lows are intact, opening the door for potential price recovery.

Bearish Scenario

If traditional equity markets experience further declines or geopolitical tensions escalate, Bitcoin could break below the $75,500 support level. A breakdown below this threshold could lead to new cycle lows, invalidating the structural bottom thesis.

Consolidation Scenario

Bitcoin may also trade sideways in a consolidated range between $75,000 and $80,000 as market participants wait for clearer macro indicators and economic stability.