Ethereum Bounces 6% to $2,439 as Wall Street Inflows Stall

EthereumETH+3.27% Bounces 6% to Test $2,439 Resistance

Ethereum (ETH) has staged a modest recovery this week, climbing roughly 6% to test a key resistance level near $2,439. While short-term bounces offer encouragement to traders, broader crypto market volatility remains an important factor to keep in mind.

Despite this price rebound, big institutional investors appear to be holding back. Data from analytics platform Glassnode shows that US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have not logged a single day of net inflows since late September.

"ETH is the sleeper of this cycle. BlackRock tokenized on it. Stablecoins settle on it. Wall Street builds on it. Price? Still $2,325. Second test of a band that’s held since 2018. Last time it got tested twice: $90 to $4,800." — Merlijn The Trader (November 4, 2026)

On-Chain Data: Network Activity Shows Fading Demand

To evaluate the strength behind Ethereum's recent price action, analysts often look at network user activity. You can think of active addresses like foot traffic in a shopping mall—when fewer people show up, economic activity tends to cool down.

Glassnode data reveals that the 14-day moving average of active Ethereum addresses dropped to approximately 365,000 on October 17. That was the lowest reading recorded since December 2025. Although active addresses recovered slightly to around 375,000, the metric continues to drift back toward its October low.

For historical perspective, active addresses spiked near 800,000 on February 9, though that surge happened during a severe sell-off driven by market capitulation. A more balanced benchmark is the spring average of 500,000 to 550,000 active addresses. Compared to that baseline, current network engagement is down roughly 25% to 30%.

Network usage also diverged from price earlier this year. Active addresses peaked around 470,000 in mid-August and steadily declined throughout the rally into September. This divergence indicates that the rally toward $2,800 was not accompanied by growing user adoption on the layer-1 mainnet.

Keep in mind that these metrics track mainnet addresses only, meaning user activity on Layer-2 (L2) scaling networks isn't captured here. Meanwhile, large holders haven't been entirely silent: long-dormant whale wallets moved over $140 million worth of ETH during October.

Wall Street ETF Inflows Dry Up for Five Straight Weeks

Institutional appetite through spot ETFs tells a cautious story as well. Glassnode reports that US spot Ethereum ETFs logged no net daily inflows from September 29 through October 30—marking 23 consecutive sessions of outflows, the longest dry spell since the funds debuted.

During October alone, investors pulled a total of $1.61 billion from these funds, making it the largest monthly outflow since their launch in July 2024. The outflow streak carried into November, with funds losing another $85.35 million on November 3, according to tracking site SoSoValue.

There are minor differences between data providers. SoSoValue recorded a small $15 million net inflow on October 21, representing a brief break in an otherwise consistent period of fund withdrawals.

These institutional flows have heavily influenced price trends this year. Ethereum's August price surge lined up directly with the largest wave of ETF inflows on record, where daily additions regularly topped 70,000 ETH. With those inflows reversing and mainnet user growth slowing, a clear replacement buyer has yet to step forward.

Technical Analysis: A Look at Weekly and Daily Charts

The Weekly View: Lower Highs and Long-Term Trends

On the weekly chart, ETH remains bound within a macro downtrend. Every major price peak since the $4,958 all-time high has landed lower than the previous one, topping out near $3,400 at the turn of the year and around $2,800 in late September.

The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,920—which served as strong price support in 2024—has flipped to act as major resistance in 2026. Price lows have also slipped over time, dropping from around $1,750 in February to about $1,520 in mid-2026.

On a local scale, market structure has shown slight improvement. The September peak surpassed the spring high near $2,470 to establish a higher high. If ETH builds a higher low from current levels, it could signal a local trend shift.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 50, reflecting neutral momentum. Trading volume has contracted since February, pointing toward market consolidation. The 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1,754 remains the strongest downside support line, having held firm through four retests since 2023.

The Daily View: Rebounding Within a Rising Wedge

Zooming into the daily timeframe, ETH recently bounced off a rising trendline near $2,200 that has supported price action since late June. The current candle pushed above the Bollinger Bands midline and is now testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,439.

Daily RSI has moved above its signal line, hinting at short-term upward momentum. However, narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate a price squeeze. Squeezes typically precede strong breakouts, though they don't reveal which direction the market will choose.

Additionally, two converging trendlines are forming a rising wedge pattern, which chartists often treat as a potential reversal signal. The upper boundary of this wedge converges with the 0.5 Fibonacci level between $2,920 and $2,950, creating a thick resistance layer above the current market price.

What Lies Ahead? Scenario-Based ETH Price Outlook

Ethereum's near-term trajectory largely hinges on how buyers and sellers react around key chart boundaries:

• Bullish Scenario: A decisive daily close above $2,439 could open the path toward the upper Bollinger Band near $2,500. A sustained break above that level targets the $2,920 to $2,950 zone (roughly 21% above $2,410), provided buying volume picks up and institutional ETF demand returns.
• Bearish Scenario: A daily close below the $2,200 trendline support would confirm a rising wedge breakdown. Under this scenario, seller pressure could push price toward the primary support zone near $1,754 (roughly 27% below $2,410).

Despite structural headwinds, long-term ETH supporters highlight underlying factors. Large exchange outflows recorded in October resemble patterns that preceded the June price rebound. Furthermore, the upcoming 'Glamsterdam' network upgrade could serve as a fundamental catalyst.

Macro analysts, such as Ted Pillows, also point to broader economic trends, connecting past ETH market moves to US manufacturing expansion cycles.

"ISM Expansion = $ETH going parabolic. It happened in 2017 and 2021 and will happen in 2027-28 again." — Ted Pillows (November 4, 2026)

While the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index registered 55.5 in October—marking 10 consecutive months of expansion—ETH price has not yet matched that broader economic growth. For now, Ethereum likely requires renewed ETF inflows or a pickup in on-chain network activity to maintain momentum.

Past performance of digital assets is not an indication of future results. Digital assets involve high market risks and volatility. Readers can check current live asset rates on the Bitkub ETH Market Page.