Ballon d’Or Owner Probes Suspicious Polymarket Bets

A Major Sports Scandal Hits Prediction Markets

Imagine guessing the exact top five winners of football's most prestigious individual award weeks before the official ceremony. Now imagine doing that while placing hundreds of thousands of dollars on a decentralized prediction platform. That is precisely what happened leading up to this year's Ballon d'Or event, and it has triggered a full legal investigation.

Groupe Amaury, the media organization behind France Football and organizer of the Ballon d'Or, announced on Saturday that a legal complaint is being filed over suspect bets placed on Polymarket. The action follows reports that a cluster of newly created accounts successfully predicted the exact top five finishing order days before the official event on October 26.

According to official statements, the organizers cited serious allegations regarding potential leaks of confidential results and fraudulent betting activities. Police have been notified, and an internal inquiry is officially underway to verify the facts and determine who might be responsible.

The $264,000 Wager That Raised Alarm Bells

The controversy first came to light when French media outlet Upside flagged highly unusual trading activity on Polymarket on October 23, three days before Harry Kane was officially named the winner in London. Investigators identified twelve brand-new Polymarket accounts created between October 1 and October 20.

Together, these twelve accounts staked a combined $264,000 on Ballon d'Or markets, backing the identical podium sequence:

1. First Place: Harry Kane
2. Second Place: Kylian Mbappé
3. Third Place: Lamine Yamal
4. Fourth Place: Rodri
5. Fifth Place: Lionel Messi

Predicting one winner is difficult enough, but guessing the exact sequence of five individual players is statistically highly improbable for average traders. Seven of these accounts placed no other bets on the platform, and six of them made their very first trades within 15 minutes of setting up their profiles.

Cashing Out in Record Time

When the official results were announced, the high-stakes gamble returned close to $200,000 in net profits. On-chain analysis shows that the suspicious bettors did not wait around once the event ended.

The twelve accounts originally deposited roughly $309,000 onto Polymarket and ultimately withdrew about $500,000 after the rankings became public. The timeline of their withdrawals highlights how coordinated the operation was:

• The first account began withdrawing funds just 19 minutes after the rankings went public.
• Within three hours, more than $374,000 had already been moved off the platform.
• By the end of the day, nearly all profits had been transferred away.

Upside divided the accounts into three distinct groups based on their money transfer patterns. Because there were no direct transfers between these three groups, analysts could not definitively state whether the bets were controlled by a single individual or multiple collaborators.

Following the Blockchain Paper Trail

Because transactions on Polymarket occur on a public blockchain, researchers were able to trace the digital footsteps left behind by the wallets. One account in particular provided an exceptionally clear money trail.

The account initially named kraben006 (later renamed Edgarblade) was the only profile among the twelve to bet on all five finishing spots, starting its wagers on October 1. Upside discovered that this wallet received its very first deposit of about $250 back in January.

That initial funding came directly from Deblock, a French financial app. Unlike anonymous crypto tools, Deblock collects Know-Your-Customer (KYC) identity data and can disclose sender details to law enforcement agencies upon request. Several other suspect accounts were funded via major centralized exchanges that verify user identities, such as Binance, Kraken, KuCoin, and Revolut.

Website Glitch or Insider Leak?

Is it possible that these bettors were simply following market trends? Upside acknowledged that on ceremony day, each of the five positions was trading at roughly 60% odds on Polymarket, meaning the outcome was already the market favorite by that time.

However, the sequence of key events points to suspicious timing:

• September 28: Jury voting officially closed.
• October 1: The first of the twelve suspect accounts was created and began placing bets.
• October 23: News outlet Upside publicly flagged the cluster of unusual trades.
• October 26: The official ceremony took place in London.

Adding further drama to the story, the official Ballon d'Or website published three pre-written articles hours before the ceremony, hailing Kane, Mbappé, and Yamal each as individual winners. Organizers clarified that articles had been drafted in advance for all nominees and insisted the publication did not reveal the official podium.

The Three-Year Winning Streak of 'Kallipso'

While examining historical data, investigators uncovered another older account trading under the handle Kallipso. This trader achieved an astounding feat by correctly predicting the Ballon d'Or winner three years in a row, accumulating nearly $50,000 in total winnings.

Kallipso's past record includes:

• 2024: Bought shares backing Rodri when odds were at just 7 cents.
• 2025: Correctly picked Ousmane Dembélé.
• 2026: Heavy backing for Harry Kane.

Most notably, Kallipso placed its first Harry Kane wager at 11:59 p.m. Paris time on September 28—exactly one minute before official jury voting closed. While no direct financial link exists between Kallipso and the twelve new accounts, the timing has raised eyebrows, though no proof shows confidential data was used.

Regulatory Enforcement and Market Rules

This case places renewed attention on prediction market rules and local regulations. Back in July, France's national gaming regulator ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket across the country.

Furthermore, Polymarket updated its rules in March to explicitly forbid trading on confidential information obtained through a breach of trust. Insider trading on prediction platforms is increasingly facing real-world enforcement. For instance, U.S. federal authorities recently charged an Army soldier accused of using classified military intelligence to bet on Polymarket.

As prediction markets grow, using non-public information to trade carries serious legal consequences across international jurisdictions.

It is worth noting that past returns on prediction markets or digital assets do not guarantee future results. As police and internal auditors continue their work, this situation highlights how public blockchains create permanent financial trails that investigators can track down.